At a recent TIE monthly meeting, the topic was "Top 10 Software Predictions for 2006" (an obvious one for this time of the year for any domain of interest). The panel proposing these predictions consisted of Ann Winblad, Gary Morganthaler and Yogen Dalal -- some of the leading valley veterans. The topic reminded me of the weekly NFL predictions hosted by sports-oriented programs. Ann Winblad summed it well when she said that the VCs are opportunists (as opposed to trend-makers) and it was up to the entrepreneurs to establish the trends and feed the predictions. It makes sense. Why are we spending 2-3 hrs on a Tues nights listening to a few VCs making their predictions for how the next twelve months will pan out. It isn't likely that anyone will walk out of the session and begin reconstructing their biz plans based upon these inputs. More than likely, I guess people want to hear what is on the minds of these veterans these days and perhaps use that as a way to schmooze with them (and/or get inspired) :)
Anyway, it was quite intriguing to hear how these folks viewed the upcoming trends in the industry. For example, they believed that enterprise software has evolved towards composite applications and belonged to large players. They did not see any opportunities for innovations in this space. Curiously, there wasn't much dialog on the productization of open source (ref: SpikeSource.com).
Google was a focus of the discussion in terms of its tactics for producing rapid innovations. There were speculations regarding what it (and Steve Jobs/Apple) will do next in their respective spaces. A few even wondered whether the Google stock will get to $500 in 2006 (obviously not relevant to the theme but clearly on people's minds).
Local WiFi networks, mobile devices, set-top boxes (as hubs in the living room) and peer-to-peer technologies (bitTorrent) also dominated much of the discussions.
This was my first visit to a TIE event. I was impressed both with the organized sessions as well as with the audience. A 'must attend' in the future.
Sanjiva, Orinda, Dec 3, 2005.
http://www.tiesv.org/Home/AboutTiE/index_html/view_document
http://www.bittorrent.com/introduction.html
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